Ideal number of rounds for CCW? I want DATA

[Ligament]

I am new to the CCW world, please forgive my ignorance in advance.

First, I quote from "NRA guide to the basics of personal protection in the home," page 62

"Studies of shooting incidents involving law enforcement officers, which typically take place at relatively close range, show that police officers achieve HITS in LESS THAN 20 PERCENT of the time. In other words, four out of five shots fired by trained law enforcement officers MISS the targe completely." (emphasis mine)

Another statistic I have heard from the FBI, which I cannot directly cite at this time

"FBI statistics show the average gunfight is over in less than 3 rounds fired by both partie."

Given that the above data is correct, what is the ideal number of rounds to carry in a CCW magazine? Given the first statistic, it seems 10 rounds may be the minimum number of rounds needed allowing 2 hits in a fight.

Please help me to make sense of this data. I'm sure there have been studies directed at this question. I would be most appreciative if you could point out the HARD DATA to me; please cite studies if possible.

Thanks!

[Handy]

There is no data, just vague statistics that WILL fail to predict your future needs.

[croyance]

Okay, I never saved links to hard data, but from memory

CCW holders hit more often than police officers. I suspect that it has much to do with range and the possibility that the threat is coming toward the CCW holder more often than at police.
Some of it is also range time. While not every person who is liscenced to carry puts in a lot of range time, there is a greater chance that they are gun enthusiasts who actully enjoy going to the range. Some police see guns as a necessary evil or just one of many things they must be competent in as part of their job.

Ideal number of rounds in a magazine? Every single one it can hold.
This isn't entirely a joke. Unlike police officers civilians who carry guns have more restrictive limitations caused by the fact that they must keep there weapon concealed. Sometimes only a snubby or a .32 ACP can be carried with one or two magazines/speedloaders. Weather, dress, and occasion have a lot to do with it.
Unfortunately concealed carry is far from idea and is a series of compromises.
Any handgun is a compromise, one for concealment more so. The less you wear the smaller the gun that can be concealed. In hot weather or when wearing light clothing, a small gun and few reloads is probably the way to go. There are exceptions.
In cold weather when everybody has layers of heavy clothing on it is possible to hide a Desert Eagle or H&K USP with multiple magazines.

[gb_in_ga]

A> Handy is right.

B> Croyance is right, too.

C> My thoughts on this: It all depends. It depends on your level of skill. It depends on what you perceive your threat level to be. It depends on what the ambient climatic conditions are. It depends on what your attire is. It depends on what level of backup the gun is (deep backup=fewer rounds). It depends on whether or not you are a LEO, and are therefore committed to stopping an attacker or just saving your own hide. It depends on just how many rounds you can fit in your gun (the more, the merrier) and how many reloads you can carry (again, the more the merrier). It depends on what caliber your gun is. Really, it turns out to be a gut call, there's no 1 right answer, and no 1 telling statistic. You'll figure out what is right for you and your situation.

[thelast2]

Some very good points made by everyone. My take on this topis is this, every situation is different and the variables will never be the same. So with that said I think it comes down to personnal preference on which firearm you are most comfortable with as far as how many rounds depends on again your comfort, is the weight an issue is the size of the gun an issue. And last but not least is your profiency with the weapon you chose ease of operation for you and ability to shoot it accurately enough that you hit the BG without having to fire more than a few rounds. So practice, not the number of bullets, increases your ability to survive.

[Radicalcleric]

There is no way to predict ANYTHING when it comes to gunfights. Far too many variables.

Most cops can't shoot for beans. Most cops live in big cities and didn't grow up shooting and hunting. Not surprising that they miss so much. The only thing that saves many of them is that as bad as they are at shooting the crooks are even worse.

If you want to plan your firepower based on data, you need two rounds. Last I heard the average gunfight involves 1.6 shots fired.

[cpileri]

Now THIS is a good topic!

Most USES of a defensive firearm involve zero shots. But...
Most gunfights involve a single shot, while others- especially civilian shooters, involve a somewhat panicked emptying of th entire mag/cylinder with the majority in the single shot range. This is all from memory but backs up the 1.6 average quoted above.

Some other info that I would like to see hard numbers on is any differences in some subgroups within the category of gunfights where shots are fired in self-defense:
1. how many shots on average were fired by the defender?
1a. what percentage of these defenders survived?
1b. does defender survivability change with number of shots fired?
4. What if any influence did caliber, make, model, etc have on the survival of defenders?

In other words, and I'm making this up, is if we find that for every defender that fired 1 shot, 80% survived; 2 shots, 89%; 3 shots 91%; 4-6 shots 94%; 7or more shots 97%. Whatever. Then you can choose the percentage you think applies to you the best.

I would imagine that if the defender had the time and ability to fire all 17 rounds, the survival would be closer to 100% (but not for sure!) but for reasons other than the firepower!

Just my guess.
C-

[gb_in_ga]

Radicalcleric:

"Most cops can't shoot for beans. Most cops live in big cities and didn't grow up shooting and hunting. Not surprising that they miss so much. The only thing that saves many of them is that as bad as they are at shooting the crooks are even worse."

Croyance:

"CCW holders hit more often than police officers. I suspect that it has much to do with range and the possibility that the threat is coming toward the CCW holder more often than at police.
Some of it is also range time. While not every person who is liscenced to carry puts in a lot of range time, there is a greater chance that they are gun enthusiasts who actully enjoy going to the range. Some police see guns as a necessary evil or just one of many things they must be competent in as part of their job."

Ligament:

"Studies of shooting incidents involving law enforcement officers, which typically take place at relatively close range, show that police officers achieve HITS in LESS THAN 20 PERCENT of the time. In other words, four out of five shots fired by trained law enforcement officers MISS the targe completely."

Ok, I was just thinking about these points, and I remembered that there's a tactical situation that LEO's sometimes encounter that is not as frequently encountered by "Civilian" shoots, and that affects the relatively low hit percentage that LEO's encounter. BTW -- Military combat hit percentages are even lower, drastically so, than LEO combat hit percentages, and I believe that is because of this same situation. And that situation is that civilian defensive shoots are usually solitary affairs, there is only 1 armed "Good Guy" facing 1 or more bad guys. In many military and LE shoots, this is not the case. Many times there are 2 or more armed "Good Guys". The overall missions of civilian shoots vs military/LEO shoots is the mission itself, in that the civilian is concerned with hide saving and military/LEO is more of a complete threat neutralization mission, and these are not the same. The civilian can accomplish the mission by affecting a retreat, but military/LEO cannot. The civilian mission is purely defensive, but military/LEO mission is much more offensive in nature. That leads to my real point, and that is that civilians have less need to "pin down" the adversary, forcing the adversary to take cover with "covering fire" for fire and maneuver type offensive tactics. Such covering fire is, by it's nature, not going to hit the adversary, it isn't really intended to. But those shots count against the total number of shots fired, skewing those percentages, sometimes grossly. In other words, 100 shots could conceivably be fired with only 1 hit, and that doesn't imply poor marksmanship or training. For that matter, that is a pretty conservative ammo expenditure in a military combat scenario.

[2400]

Ideal number of rounds for CCW? I want DATA

Three more rounds that you used.

[USP45usp]

I have one full clip ( :D ) magazine in the pistol with +1 chambered and one spare.

On the Kimber this gives me 17 and on the HK gives me 25 (finally got standard caps for it at 12 per). If I need more then that then I really screwed up and got someplace that I really didn't need to be :(.

Wayne

[Hard Ball]

I agree. One round in the chamber, a full magazin in the pistol and another i in reserve. Also practice against man sized targets at 10 and 20 yards.

[cpileri]

Here's a guy who needs much more ammo than some:

My CCW instructor was giving a demo after the shooting part of our course. He told us ahead of time his exact speed record, but it was approx 1.5 seconds for 17 rds of 9mm out of an unmodified Glock 17.

He stood about 7 feet from the target and aimed for the belly, then pulling the trigger as fas as possible he sippered the man-sized silohuette up the middle. One stray missed over the right shoulder.

"Lead in the air" or "wall of lead" tactic. He basically just controlled the recoil and muzzle flip as best he could while moving his triggerfinger fast.

His rate was about 600rds/min, like some small subguns. Imagine a subgun hit at 7 feet!

So if this is your technique, I suggest carrying more rounds for the next badguy.

C-

[Mike Irwin]

I carry a 5-shot revolver, and rarely carry a reload.

[JMC]

I carry a 13 round semi-auto (P99/.40) and never carry a reload on my person.
I never needed even one round in eight years of carry after retiring with 25 years as an LEO when I carried up to 50 rounds on my person and never fired a shot in anger.
As a civilian, if I ever have the need for more than 13 rounds, I'm in deep trouble and shouldn't be there in the first damn place. ;)

[Rojoe67]

My carry load is what the handgun holds........ with exception to the 9mm having a 10 round capacity - I go one less, I read this in a handgun rag. I guess it is less stress and work on the spring in the mag? Masad said so in so many words. So in the 9mm (9 jhp's) in the new 637 (5 jhp's)

If I need more than what the gun holds I think I might have stepped into my last gun show.......? Not sure were I would hide all the extra if I did load up for Bagdad?

[Sturm]

I would like to throw in a couple of points. 1. cpileri is correct, the data that you read is based on the median in these cases. If 90% of all gun fights occur at 21 ft. or less, the 21' median is only stating that this would be an average from 0-42' and averages have very little merit in an actual gunbattle.

2. The defensive use of a handgun does cover the fact that once the defender draws a gun, in many cases the aggressor flees the scene. Once shots are fired, forget defense and go to offense. Look at the professional warrior mindset and forget the police until they arrive to take a statement and give them nothing but the information that you were attacked and defended yourself until you have consulted with an attorney. Professionals are taught the Double-Tap for good reason. Shoot twice to begin with and you already know that your percentages have increased. Put both shots in the same effective place and #1 is accounted for.

How many aggressors, might you be facing? Who knows, and no one could predict it anyway. I carry a pistol small enough to conceal with the most firepower I can have, regardless of caliber. I plan to put two shots where they count. I have the capability to deal with 7.5 potential targets with one magazine in a CZ P-01 that is as accurate as any pistol in the same size class and I will have a loaded spare magazine for another 14 shots. The rest is up to my ability to place the shots where they will count. If the fight is over at 2 rounds from my pistol, I have only used 7% of my insurance policy. If I dont have enough rounds to deal with the situation anyway, fight or flight protocal should have suggested that I get out of the situation by fleeing in the first place and use the 29 rounds to cover the egress! ;)

[Person of Interest]

17 shots in 1.5 seconds? I would like to see that. In fact, I'm afraid that I'd have to see that.

[Sturm]

Just looking at the target would work for me! ;)

[BillCA]

I look at it this way...

In the rare situation where I have to draw a gun and fire it, my goal is to stop someone from being hurt or killed -- probably me. Statistically most gunfights are over fairly fast with only a couple of rounds expended.

But I'm sure the day I carry a 5-shot J-frame with no speed loaders is the day I'll run into 3 bad guys.

I'll almost always carry a full reload with me (speed loader or a magazine). If I think I'll be in a bad area or away from help, carry more. You know you're carrying too much ammo if your pants wont stay up! :D

[TBT]

As many rounds as your weapon and caliber of choice can hold. I think 6 would be the minimum with there being no maximum. If you can comfortably and legally carry a G17 with a 30 round clip … by all means, DO THAT.

I carry a Kimber Ultra Carry II with 8 rounds in the gun and 7 in a spare mag. That’s a total of 15 rounds of 45ACP.

[OBIWAN]

Like Handy said

HARD DATA may...or may not make you feel better

But it don't mean nuthin!

[ODD1]

If you ask the question because you are chooseing a carry gun, may I suggest another method.

Shoot many different models and calibers. Find the one you will practice with and can hit with. Whatever platform and caliber you have will be the ideal number of rounds for CCW for YOU. :eek:

There is no magic number, caliber, bullet,or handgun.
These things are tools.

[The Body Bagger]

AR15 with Beta C mag......just in case.

[JohnKSa]

Pick a time period and area to study. Let's say the last 20 years in the U.S.

For any scenario during the period except ONE (the one where the defender fired the most rounds), there will be another scenario where the defender needed more rounds.

Clearly everyone but the guy who used the most rounds couldn't have been carrying the IDEAL number of rounds because anything less would have gotten them killed if they had ended up in his nightmare.

Pick a gun you shoot well and can conceal well. Carry as much ammo as you can practically carry. Maybe that ends up being a single firearm and no reload. Maybe it's a gun and a spare magazine. Maybe it's a gun and three spare mags. Your budget, shooting skills, body type, style of dress and the legal situation in which you find yourself (in terms of carry laws) will determine all of these things to a large extent.

Are you REALLY telling me that if I could show you DATA that indicated that 124 rounds was a practical minimum you'd carry that much?

IDEAL is a really neat concept. Unfortunately it's not attainable. The Russians have a proverb. "The best is the enemy of good enough."

[seb5]

I'd like to add another opinion. It's well known that overall marksmanship is poor in actual gunfights by police. I think as a whole that law enforcement reflects society. Some hardcore shooters, some very poor, and most somewhere in the middle. As some know I am a cop, a firearms instructor, so I know firsthand what the abilities are of the cops. I would like to add one thing to the discussion. Most law enforcement officers that are involved in a shooting are already down one to start. Everyone who sees them knows they are armed. They are usually reacting to a very visible threat and the threat is aware that they are the police. Most CCW's involved in shootings surprise someone in the process of commiting a violent felony. That adds a whole other dimension to the equation.

As far as how many is enough, I don't know. Off duty a "J" with 6 in a strip is OK. Sometimes my Glock 23 with 13 in it, and sometimes the Glock with a spare. YMMV.

[Dwight55]

I don't say this to be funny, . . . like old Jack Webb, . . . just the facts.

If you get into a shooting, . . . and you had bullets left over when it was done, you had too many with you.

If you get into a shooting, . . . and you ran out, . . . chances are you will not be able to review your mistake. Shootings never have "do over's" or "mulligans". Besides that, . . . running out of ammo in a shooting, usually signals defeat for the one who ran out.

Determine for yourself which scenario is less important for you to be in and carry accordingly. Mine is a total of 3, 8 round mags, plus one in the tube for a total of 25. I just hope that will be enough should I need them.

May God bless,
Dwight

[TheEgg]

The answer to your question is the same as to most of the really important questions in life -- IT DEPENDS.

That out of the way -- carry as many as are practical for you. I find no problem carrying 31 rounds. I THINK that will be FAR more than I will ever need, but it is just as easy for me to carry 31 as it is to carry 16 as it is to carry 8 as it is to carry 5. If I am going to go to the trouble of dragging around a gun, 31 is just as easy as 5, so why not carry 31????????

If 50 is just as easy for you, carry that.

[USP45usp]

DEPENDS

If you find that you DON'T have enough then you may need to wear these :D :D

Wayne

[BillCA]

My mindset is as follows;

Carry 2 complete reloads. 2 Speeloaders/strips; 2 Magazines or whatever.

In a fight, odds are that you won't empty your weapon. But that 1 in 100 situation might come up. If so...

If you empty your weapon, you'll seek cover to reload.
If you're behind cover stay there and defend your position & look for an exit.
If you've run empty again, use the last load to cover your retreat.
If you survived, treat yourself to a hot shower, a hot meal, 8 hours of sleep and a new pair of underwear!

[tom650604]

It doesn't matter what the data says (if there is one). If you get into a gun fight, everybody in here would wish they had more ammo regardless. There's never enough, especially when you are in a gun fight. :D

[Mannlicher]

I am not sure of any hard data on this subject. However, if the best data out there showed that 98% of the time, two rounds would suffice, then I would want to carry 18.

[ScoutMac]

In the Army we had alot of sayings: two of them being:

-You can NEVER have enough Ammo.

-Happiness is a belt fed weapon.

[Tacoma]

Ok, my three cents.
1)Be careful of statistics. A good statistition can make them say whatever he/she wants. The 20% figure smells of that to me. Having said that , we had a well publisized shooting here a few years back. 80+ shots fired by 5 LEO's , 11 hits. Good thing the guy was unarmed :-)

2) LEO and civilians are likely to be in very different situations when a gun is needed. i.e LOE's are much more likely to be persuing a suspect as they fire and/or dealing with a baricaded suspect in longer gunfights. They need to engage until it's over and the BG is dead/captured. A Civy will not (unless he plans to spend the rest of his life in court.) A Civy needs to disarm the situation and get away. It ain't the Ok corral, if you react as such, they will string you up.

3) On average, I'd bet most private CCW holders do more range time than their LEO counterparts. I know my brotherin-law (LEO) has to qualify only once a year for his department. He doesn't even have to use Dept issue gun, caliber or ammo. "Any centerfire."