I figure it could go both ways, but I'm gonna have to agree, more or less, with the OP.
A few things to consider:
-There are no stats on crimes that did NOT occur.
-Criminals are not all "dumb"... what they do is not smart, but there ARE smart criminals out there.
-You only hear about the crimes that did happen, and those are the ones we tend to remember.
I think most criminals pick out the target they assume to be the weakest. The guy / gal with a gun is not likely to be the weakest target a BG can find.
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